Newspaper Circulation Losses

The latest FAS-FAX figures from the Audit Circulation Bureau show another decline for U.S. newspapers. The reporting is for the six months ending September 2008. Overall losses were - 4.6% on daily circulation. Last year, the overall circulation decline ending September 2007 was -2.6%

The list of losses, as presented by Editor & Publisher
was by circulation.
USA TODAY -- 2,293,310 -- 0.01%
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL -- 2,011,999 -- 0.01%
NEW YORK TIMES -- 1,000,665 -- (-3.58%)
LOS ANGELES TIMES -- 739,147 -- (-5.20%)
DAILY NEWS, NEW YORK -- 632,595 -- (-7.16%)
NEW YORK POST -- 625,421 -- (-6.25%)
THE WASHINGTON POST -- 622,714 -- (-1.94%)
CHICAGO TRIBUNE -- 516,032 -- (-7.75%)
HOUSTON CHRONICLE -- 448,271 -- (-11.66%)
NEWSDAY -- 377,517 -- (-2.58%)
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC -- 361,333 -- (-5.51%)
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE -- 339,430 -- (-7.07%)
THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS -- 338,933 -- (-9.28%)
BOSTON GLOBE -- 323,983 -- (-10.18%)
STAR TRIBUNE, MINNEAPOLIS -- 322,360 -- (-4.26%) 2
STAR-LEDGER, NEWARK, N.J. -- 316,280 -- (-10.40%)
CHICAGO SUN-TIMES -- 313,176 -- (-3.94%)
PLAIN DEALER, CLEVELAND -- 305,529 -- (-8.58%)
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER -- 300,674 -- (-11.06%)
DETROIT FREE PRESS -- 298,243 -- (-6.84%)
THE OREGONIAN -- 283,321 -- (-8.45%) 4
THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION -- 274,999 -- (-13.62%) 1
SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE -- 269,819 -- (-3.00%)
ST. PETERSBURG (FLA.) TIMES -- 268,935 -- (-6.88%)
THE SACRAMENTO BEE -- 253,249 -- (-4.22%)
(At this point, they cut off one of the worst losses - by the Orange County Register. 3)

That same list rearranged by losses (high to low.)
There are five in double digits.
(The -15% loss at Orange County Register should be here at the top.)
THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION -- 274,999 -- (-13.62%)
HOUSTON CHRONICLE -- 448,271 -- (-11.66%)
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER -- 300,674 -- (-11.06%)
STAR-LEDGER, NEWARK, N.J. -- 316,280 -- (-10.40%)
BOSTON GLOBE -- 323,983 -- (-10.18%)
THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS -- 338,933 -- (-9.28%)
PLAIN DEALER, CLEVELAND -- 305,529 -- (-8.58%)
THE OREGONIAN -- 283,321 -- (-8.45%)
CHICAGO TRIBUNE -- 516,032 -- (-7.75%)
DAILY NEWS, NEW YORK -- 632,595 -- (-7.16%)
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE -- 339,430 -- (-7.07%)
ST. PETERSBURG (FLA.) TIMES -- 268,935 -- (-6.88%)
DETROIT FREE PRESS -- 298,243 -- (-6.84%)
NEW YORK POST -- 625,421 -- (-6.25%)
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC -- 361,333 -- (-5.51%)
LOS ANGELES TIMES -- 739,147 -- (-5.20%)
STAR TRIBUNE, MINNEAPOLIS -- 322,360 -- (-4.26%)
THE SACRAMENTO BEE -- 253,249 -- (-4.22%)
CHICAGO SUN-TIMES -- 313,176 -- (-3.94%)
NEW YORK TIMES -- 1,000,665 -- (-3.58%)
SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE -- 269,819 -- (-3.00%)
NEWSDAY -- 377,517 -- (-2.58%)
THE WASHINGTON POST -- 622,714 -- (-1.94%)
USA TODAY -- 2,293,310 -- 0.01%
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL -- 2,011,999 -- 0.01%

Not on their list but shown in an another E & P article.
--- (Arranged by losses, high to low.) Three are double digit.
The Daily News in Philly, daily circ down 13.2% to 97,694
Miami Herald daily circ was down 11.8% to 210,884
The Detroit News’ daily circ down 10.0% to 178,280 copies
Daily circ at the Denver Post down 6.5% to 210,585
Rocky Mountain News daily circ down 6.6% to 210,281
The Orlando Sentinel lost 3.3% of its daily circ to 206,363
The San Jose Mercury News was down 1.9% to 224,199

Losses reported elsewhere.
The Boston Herald circ down 9.9% to 167,506.
Orange County Register circ down 15% from a year earlier to 236,277. 3

WINNERS, so to speak, in circulation gains. From E & P article.
Notice that all are small newspapers.
WISCONSIN STATE JOURNAL -- 97,012 -- 10.61%
TRENTON (N.J.) TIMES -- 53,303 -- 5.34%
DESERET NEWS, SALT LAKE CITY -- 71,133 -- 2.09%
ERIE (PA.) TIMES-NEWS -- 56,124 -- 1.81%
THE QUAD-CITY TIMES, DAVENPORT, IOWA -- 50,820 -- 1.66%
BATON ROUGE ADVOCATE (LA.) -- 92,030 -- 1.35%
HUNTSVILLE TIMES (ALA.) -- 50,998 -- 1.27%
COLORADO SPRINGS GAZETTE (COLO.) -- 96,515 -- 1.16%
OGDEN STANDARD-EXAMINER (UTAH) 60,907 -- 0.93%
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL -- 165,010 -- 0.85%

Top 25 Daily Circ Gainers can be found at Fitz & Jen. (E & P blog.)

The Chicago Tribune article on the latest figures was titled "New newspaper paid-circulation figures out -- thanks for reading this ... somewhere"
They reported their own circulation losses for the six month period ending September 2008 at -5.8% while they said the Chicago Sun-Times paid-circulation averages fell 3.9 percent weekdays, year-to-year.

The Chicago Sun-Times reported their average weekday circulation rose 0.3 percent to 313,174 copies.

THE FUTURE? The worst is yet to come: "Newspapers are currently more worried about even steeper, double-digit reductions in advertising revenue caused largely by the weak economy." And despite cheerful observations that "Declines are expected given the ongoing migration of readers to the Internet." by the Canadian Press, online readers are unpaid readers. And advertisers will not be paying large rates for unverifiable visitors to a newspaper web site.

From October 27, 2008 "Selling Papers" by James Erick Abels in Forbes.

"[Newspapers] draw most of their advertising from the local economy," says John Puchella, a newspaper analyst with Moody's. As recession sinks in across the country, many of the local businesses that constitute newspapers' biggest ad buyers could disappear, he says--and an industry can't rebound if its market ceases to exist.

Read the whole thing.

And, too, their regular readers may decide that in a tight economy they no longer want to subscribe.

Worse for newspapers, the capital to keep them afloat is no longer guaranteed. Those private equity firms that made billions on real estate speculation are no longer flush with money. They've propped up newspapers across the country in the last few years. And those foreign investors aren't there to prop up the equity funds anymore either.
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FOOTNOTES
1 To put it in perspective, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution latest circulation figure is 274,999. They lost 13.9% from the same period a year ago. This latest drop comes after a 8.5 percent decline in circulation in the previous six month period ending March 31, where circulation numbers were 326,907, and a 9.1 percent decline in the six month period before that. Since April, the AJC’s daily circulation figures have fallen by 51,908.

2 The Minneapolis Star-Tribune is in the midst of a restructuring. Its owner, private-equity owner Avista Capital Partners, has skipped debt payments as its health worsens. In October, the Star-Tribune skipped a $9 million payment on a $432 million debt. Avista Capital Partners, a New York private equity firm, paid $530 million for the Star Tribune in 2007. In July 2008, the paper failed to make a quarterly interest payment to holders of its lower-level debt - some $96 million owed to Avista, money Avista raised last year when it acquired the paper. In May 2008, Avista Capital Partners wrote down the value of its $100 million investment by 75 percent, reflecting the falling value of newspapers such as the Star Tribune.

LEGAL WOES: The Star-Tribune paid $3.8 million just in legal fees to the Pioneer Press. This was after settling a lawsuit that mandated that Par Ridder can't return to work (so ordered by a judge) at the Star Tribune or its parent company, Avista Capital Partners, until Sept. 18, 2008. The Star Tribune reported that Ridder resigned, and in return, the Pioneer Press agreed to drop a lawsuit against Ridder and the Minneapolis-based paper. See previous entry. Even the union wanted Ridder gone.

FINANCIAL CONNECTIONS: You could spend a day clicking though the holding companies and financial connections of Avista. The founder is also a partner in DJL Merchant Banking Partners, which is a private equity investment affiliate of Credit Suisse.

3 The Orange County Register is owned by Irvine-based Freedom Communications and is rumored to be for sale. The rumor monger? The Financial Times. link

Blackstone and Providence Equity, which own about 45 per cent of Freedom, are "eager to reduce their exposure." In October, the Register revealed that Freedom Communications is in "technical violation of the terms of its loan agreements but generates sufficient cash to meet payroll, pay its vendors and make its loan payments and other financial obligations." They were "in discussions with their lenders."

The lenders are fascinating. Blackstone bought out Sam Zell's national Equity Office Properties' portfolio buildings for $36 billion and quickly flipped nine of the San Francisco buildings to Morgan Stanley Real Estate for $2.6 billion. Sam Zell quickly bought the Tribune Co. (Chicago Tribune) and with it, the Tribune-owned Los Angeles Times, for $8.2 billion. He later sold Newsday to afford the debt payments on the $13 billion owed. And the LA Times building and the Tribune Tower are likely to go up for sale. That is, if anyone in this depressed real estate market wants them. To cut costs, the Zell's Tribune Co. dropped AP stories. And we all know what happened to Morgan Stanley. And it isn't over yet as investors continue to withdraw their money market accounts from the firm.

Blackstone isn't doing well either. Their shares have collapsed as "Over the past year, the stock price has plunged from $29.38 to a recent low of $6.88." One of it's big investors? AIG and you don't even want to know how badly they are doing even with the government bailout.